Monday’s Ag Market Recap & WASDE Estimates

Grains were uniformly higher early on Monday but some of that strength fizzled as positioning squaring ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE may have capped upside movement. Livestock markets were mostly mixed with little new news.

Charts and more

Lean Hogs (February)

Lean hogs attempted to rally yesterday but failed against first resistance near 88.00. A continued failure there could start to trigger some long liquidation. First support remains intact and defined by our pivot pocket, 85.37-85.50. A break and close below there could accelerate the rate of long liquidation. Zooming out, there have been opportunities on both sides of the market over the last month, with prices nearly unchanged since early November.

• Resistance: 87.67-88.00**, 89.275-89.60****
• Pivot: 85.375-85.50
• Support: 83.97-84.30**, 82.05-82.27***, 80.90-81.20****

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 12.9.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Report
(Updated on 12.9.24)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds expanded their net long position to another new record, now net long 133,507 futures/options contracts. Below is a chart of Fund positioning (yellow line) dating back to 2006.

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