Softs Report 11/18/19

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was little changed last week. The market got some good news on Friday as USDA reported the strongest week of export sales for the year. China was included as a buyer which has been considered important for Cotton demand moving forward. China has also been buying Cotton from Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The market also displayed little reaction to the lower than expected production and ending stocks estimates released by USDA the previous week. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. Last week featured very cold temperatures and some worry about quality but not enough to affect prices much. The harvest will start to wind down over the next couple of weeks and certified inventories have been steadily growing but will soon start to level off. The market could hold to a sideways to weaker pattern until the tail end of the harvest.
Overnight News: The Delta should see dry weather and above normal temperatures. The Southeast should get some showers today and tomorrow then turn dry. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be variable and on both sides of normal. The USDA average price is now 61.73 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 62,446 bales, from 57,548 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6410, 6390, and 6340 December, with resistance of 6500, 6550, and 6570 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 264,847
: Positions :
: 23,673 48,588 52,503 86,695 133,942 86,444 15,402 249,315 250,435: 15,531 14,412
: Changes from: November 5, 2019 (Change in open interest: -52,289) :
: -742 280 -21,765 -25,616 -22,913 -4,343 -8,650 -52,465 -53,047: 177 759
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 18.3 19.8 32.7 50.6 32.6 5.8 94.1 94.6: 5.9 5.4
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 87 92 46 56 45 21 218 208:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher for the week in narrow range trading. Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range. Futures had held the same range since April. USDA showed strong production last month at more than 77 million boxes of Oranges from Florida and demand remains weaker. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 33% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers this week and mostly dry weather this weekend. Temperatures will average mostly above normal but below normal this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 206 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 January, with resistance at 101.00, 102.00, and 104.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 21,287 :
: Positions :
: 10,982 7,519 1,228 0 70 666 7,818 150 1,622 994 2,339 :
: Changes from: November 5, 2019 :
: -271 -242 43 0 -7 -96 -77 0 100 -19 5 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.6 35.3 5.8 0.0 0.3 3.1 36.7 0.7 7.6 4.7 11.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 83 :
: 23 13 6 0 . . 25 . 20 4 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower for the week in New York and a little higher in London. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas to help ideas of big production in the coming year. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this week. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. A tropical system hit production areas in the last couple of weeks but so far there have been reports of some damage and losses.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.182 million bags. GCA stocks are 7.177 million bags, from 7.352 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 106.18 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Scattered showers are forecast for next week. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas, but trends are a little dryer now.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 105.00, 104.00, and 103.00 December, and resistance is at 108.00, 110.00 and 111.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1380, 1360, and 1340 January, and resistance is at 1430, 1460, and 1480 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 335,383
: Positions :
: 32,349 49,049 78,605 131,564 168,945 71,714 21,863 314,233 318,462: 21,151 16,921
: Changes from: November 5, 2019 (Change in open interest: -40,694) :
: 1,006 -22,175 -19,844 -15,178 6,091 -5,851 -6,112 -39,867 -42,041: -827 1,347
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.6 14.6 23.4 39.2 50.4 21.4 6.5 93.7 95.0: 6.3 5.0
: Total Traders: 434 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 121 118 135 117 108 44 27 360 326:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/12/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
138,725 87,998 62,938 8,391 4,806 3,645
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 63.4% 45.4% 6.0% 3.5% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
153 51 41 13 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
5,401 38,407 10,459 3,834 2,022 12,030
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 27.7% 7.5% 2.8% 1.5% 8.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 29 13 15 9 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,966 4,417
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 3.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed higher for the week despite lower prices on Friday. Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term in New York but are sideways in London. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well. ABIOVE showed a big increase in cane processing in the last two weeks so the industry is ramping up to sell both Sugar and Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers this week and dry weather this weekend. Scattered showers are forecast for next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1310 March. Support is at 1260, 1240, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1320 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 333.00, 331.00, and 327.00 March, and resistance is at 340.00, 345.00, and 348.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,112,747
: Positions :
: 105,871 278,864 219,568 396,847 431,356 303,084 110,627 1,025,369 1,040,416: 87,378 72,332
: Changes from: November 5, 2019 (Change in open interest: -5,533) :
: 8,939 -17,735 -1,724 -6,482 7,140 -21 6,254 712 -6,064: -6,245 531
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 25.1 19.7 35.7 38.8 27.2 9.9 92.1 93.5: 7.9 6.5
: Total Traders: 270 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 71 85 77 67 40 24 230 205:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/12/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
86,311 38,506 53,970 11,206 971 1,489
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 44.6% 62.5% 13.0% 1.1% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 46 41 7 3 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,068 17,732 5,072 3,576 996 2,903
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.1% 20.5% 5.9% 4.1% 1.2% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 25 12 10 7 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,492 3,178
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 3.7%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed sharply higher and the weekly charts imply that a significant rally is underway. It seems that the market is short Cocoa for the demand even through arrivals have been stronger so far this season from West Africa. Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices and are inviting Nigeria and Cameroon into the minimum pricing system they are creating.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.164 million bags. ICE said that 16 contracts were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2820 March. Support is at 2600, 2570, and 2540 March, with resistance at 2690, 2720, and 2750 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2050 March. Support is at 1920, 1900, and 1870 March, with resistance at 1970, 2000, and 2030 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 346,103
: Positions :
: 61,072 39,781 90,309 116,206 180,142 59,985 20,823 327,572 331,054: 18,531 15,048
: Changes from: November 5, 2019 (Change in open interest: 10,950) :
: 6,120 -2,846 13,149 -4,442 6,297 -4,945 -6,617 9,882 9,983: 1,068 966
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.6 11.5 26.1 33.6 52.0 17.3 6.0 94.6 95.7: 5.4 4.3
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 56 87 35 40 36 20 209 173:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/12/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
432,000 191,095 292,751 39,474 16,087 33,281
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 44.2% 67.8% 9.1% 3.7% 7.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
168 48 51 16 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
75,315 3,181 37,243 4,007 523 46,940
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.4% 0.7% 8.6% 0.9% 0.1% 10.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 8 19 12 13 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,645 1,993
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 0.5%